In 2019, US films accounted for roughly 63% of global cinema admissions. Six years later, the share was about 52%. Over the same period, the share attributed to Asian films rose from roughly 27% to 36%. And the biggest worldwide movie of 2025 was not a Disney, Universal or Warner Bros. release, but the Chinese animated phenomenon Ne Zha 2.
Forecast details
According to the European Audiovisual Observatory, this was the first time a film from a non-US studio topped the worldwide annual ranking. That does not mean Hollywood has already lost. US films still occupied most places in the global top 50 in 2025 and retained a majority share of European admissions.
In 2026, the pendulum swung back toward large American releases, with Hollywood titles again dominating the upper part of the worldwide chart at the current snapshot, as shown by Box Office Mojo. The real question is therefore not whether Hollywood is “ending,” but whether global cinema will keep becoming less dependent on American films.
Current forecast: about a 70% probability that in at least one full calendar year from 2027 through 2030, the share of US films in worldwide theatrical admissions will fall below 50%. Hollywood is still likely to remain the world’s strongest single film ecosystem, but its old advantage is increasingly turning into leadership inside a more multipolar market.
What does Hollywood dominance actually mean?
“Hollywood dominates the world” sounds straightforward until it has to be measured. We could count box office revenue, tickets, the number of titles in the global top 20, international studio revenue, franchise popularity or cultural influence. Each would tell a somewhat different story.
A forecast needs one rule. This article therefore uses a broader but reproducible metric: the share of US films in global theatrical admissions, as reported by the European Audiovisual Observatory in FOCUS — World Film Market Trends.
That is not a perfect synonym for Hollywood. American cinema is broader than the traditional major-studio system, and many blockbusters are international productions. But the metric is more useful for a long-term forecast than a vague concept of influence. The 50% threshold is also meaningful: below it, all other national cinemas combined account for a majority of the worldwide theatrical audience.
The shift has already started — and it is bigger than one Chinese hit
The strongest case for a gradual erosion of the US advantage is not Ne Zha 2 itself. The more important point is that the change is visible across several major markets. According to FOCUS and the European Audiovisual Observatory, US films represented about 52% of worldwide admissions in 2025 versus 63% in 2019, while the Asian share rose from about 27% to 36%.
China shows an even sharper local picture. According to the China Film Administration, domestic films earned RMB 41.293 billion out of a total RMB 51.832 billion in 2025, or 79.67% of the market. Eight of the country’s ten highest-grossing films were local productions.
Japan looks similar. The Motion Picture Producers Association of Japan reported that domestic films generated 75.6% of the 2025 box office, leaving 24.4% for foreign titles. The split had been much closer in 2019.
The problem for Hollywood is therefore not merely that a giant Chinese or Japanese hit occasionally appears. Major Asian markets have structurally become capable of satisfying a large part of their own audience demand without American product.
Why local cinema has become stronger
For much of the second half of the twentieth century, Hollywood had a combination of advantages that was difficult to reproduce: enormous budgets, technical infrastructure, worldwide distribution, globally recognised stars and genres that travelled well. A blockbuster was expensive, and only a few production centres could make them regularly.
That gap is narrowing. China can finance large-scale commercial cinema for a vast domestic market. India contains several major film industries within one country. Japan turns manga, anime and other established IP into international theatrical franchises. South Korea has built a system in which a local film can gain worldwide cultural visibility without first passing through Hollywood.
The internet has also weakened an older advantage. A major non-English-language film once had far fewer ways to build an international fan base before its global release. Today, audiences in Europe or the US may know a Japanese or Korean franchise for years before its newest movie reaches local cinemas.
Europe shows a different form of erosion
Europe remains much more dependent on American cinema than China, India or Japan, which makes it useful for seeing the limits of the current transformation. US films still dominate the upper end of the European chart, but their share has declined from peak years while national cinema has strengthened in several countries.
This is a different path from Asia. France, Germany or Italy are unlikely to displace American product across Europe any time soon. But local hits increasingly take meaningful shares of their home markets. Hollywood does not need to “lose Europe” to lose global percentage points.
Why Hollywood could still reverse the trend
The strongest counterargument is Hollywood’s ability to produce powerful cycles of global franchises. One exceptional release calendar can quickly push American films back to the top. Marvel, DC, Avatar, Pixar, Nintendo through Universal, Jurassic World, Minions, Star Wars and other brands can open almost everywhere at once and generate hundreds of millions of dollars outside the United States.
Before 2026, Gower Street expected stronger recovery in markets dependent on Hollywood product and later also highlighted the resilience of the international market outside China. The pattern is important: Hollywood can have a spectacular year while local industries continue to strengthen structurally. See Gower Street’s revised outlook.
That is why the forecast looks through 2030 rather than only at the next twelve months.
The most likely future is multipolarity, not a new Hollywood
It is tempting to search for a replacement Hollywood: China, India, Korea or Japan. That probably describes the change incorrectly. Chinese cinema can dominate China, Indian cinema can dominate India, Japanese anime can keep expanding abroad and European countries can strengthen local production — without any one of them becoming the new global Hollywood.
It is enough for each to take a piece of the market. That is the deeper change. Globalisation in cinema increasingly looks less like one-way export of American product and more like a network of large regional ecosystems.
Four scenarios through 2030
| Scenario | Probability | What happens |
|---|---|---|
| Gradual multipolarity | 50% | Hollywood remains the largest single centre, but the US share of global admissions falls at least once to roughly 45–49%. |
| Faster erosion | 20% | China, India, Japan and other local markets create several strong hit cycles and the US share drops below 45%. |
| Stabilisation | 25% | US films remain around 50–55% and local cinema stops taking substantial additional global share. |
| A new Hollywood dominance cycle | 5% | A run of global franchises and weaker local competition restore a sustained US share above 55%. |
The first two scenarios resolve the formal forecast YES. Together they produce the 70% probability. This is not a forecast of Hollywood’s disappearance. Even under faster erosion, US studios would probably remain extremely powerful in financing, international distribution, technology, franchise management and premium blockbuster production.
What would change the forecast
The strongest confirmation would be repeatability rather than another isolated Ne Zha 2. If several non-US films from different countries enter the global top 10 in 2027–2028 while the American admissions share approaches 50%, the probability should rise.
The forecast would move lower if 2026 proves to be the beginning of a longer recovery rather than just a strong slate. Two consecutive years with a US share around 56–58% or higher would be meaningful evidence that part of the 2019–2025 decline was cyclical.
China is especially important. If Hollywood again learns to produce imported hits there on a regular basis, the global arithmetic changes. If China remains overwhelmingly local, maintaining more than half of the worldwide audience becomes increasingly difficult for American films.
Hollywood can lose the majority without losing first place
That is the central distinction between the current transformation and the popular narrative of Hollywood decline. There is no obvious rival likely to replace the US film industry by itself over the next few years. But the large local ecosystems together are already changing the mathematics of the global theatrical market.
Most likely outcome through 2030: Hollywood remains the world’s largest centre of commercial cinema, but at least once loses an absolute majority of the worldwide theatrical audience. The world would not stop watching Hollywood; Hollywood would simply stop being almost synonymous with global mass-market cinema.
Forecast card
Forecast ID: CIN-HOLLYWOOD-2030-01
Formal question: Will the share of US films in worldwide theatrical admissions fall below 50% in at least one full calendar year from 2027 through 2030, according to FOCUS — World Film Market Trends?
YES: FOCUS reports a US-film share below 50% for any year from 2027 to 2030.
NO: the share remains at or above 50% in all four years.
Resolution date: June 30, 2031, or after publication of the complete 2030 FOCUS data if released later.
Probability: 70%.
Confidence: 70/100.
Snapshot: October 12, 2026.
Disclaimer
This forecast does not claim that the event will happen. It shows a current probability estimate based on the information available at the time of the forecast. The estimate may change as new information appears.
