Short answer: the probability that Ukraine will obtain or deploy at scale a non-drone military capability that materially improves its position on at least part of the battlefield by the end of 2028 is estimated at roughly 70%. The strongest…
Donald Trump can defend his diesel arrangement with Vladimir Putin in simple terms: Americans need lower fuel prices, and a U.S. president is expected to put the economic interests of his own citizens first. In domestic politics, that argument is…
When a U.S. president reaches a diesel deal with Vladimir Putin and Washington immediately opens a sanctions exception for the trade, the Ukrainian reaction can easily be compressed into one phrase: Trump “sold out for diesel.” The line is emotionally…
Less than three months remain before the end of 2026. Diplomatic contacts continue, but they are unfolding alongside infrastructure strikes and active front-line fighting. Russia publicly rejects short pauses in favor of a broader long-term settlement, Ukraine wants stronger pressure…