Sevilla host Osasuna at the Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán on October 26 in the final game of La Liga Matchday 10. ORBK.NET gives the home side only a slight edge. This is one of those matchups where the difference between a Sevilla win, a draw and an upset remains relatively small.
Forecast details
The fixture is scheduled for Monday, October 26. Sevilla’s official website confirms a 9:00 p.m. local kickoff at the Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán. Match details are available on the Sevilla website.
Sevilla have been the more stable side so far
After eight league games, Sevilla had 14 points and sat fifth in the table. They had four wins, two draws and two defeats, with 13 goals scored and 12 conceded.
Over the same period, Osasuna had eight points and were 16th: two wins, two draws and four defeats. The defensive gap was especially notable, with the Pamplona side already conceding 18 goals. Matchday data can be checked through La Liga.
Those numbers do not make Sevilla overwhelming favorites, but they do show that the home side have been more consistent in the opening weeks of the season.
The Levante draw exposed Sevilla’s defensive issues
On October 12, Sevilla drew 3-3 away to Levante. The result was particularly frustrating because of the way the game unfolded. Sevilla had held a two-goal advantage, then the closing stages turned chaotic. A late Isaac Romero goal put the Andalusian side ahead again, only for Levante to equalize in the 100th minute.
That is an important signal for the Osasuna forecast. Sevilla again showed that they can create chances and score regularly, but their ability to control games after taking the lead remains questionable.
Sevilla face Real Madrid before Osasuna
The schedule is another reason to avoid excessive confidence. Sevilla travel to the Santiago Bernabéu to face Real Madrid on October 18. Only after that fixture will they have a full week to prepare for Osasuna.
That Madrid game should reveal Sevilla’s physical condition, any new injury concerns and how well the team can withstand sustained pressure from elite opposition.
As of October 15, the injury situation was not ideal. Jon Guridi had an adductor injury, Kochorashvili was working individually, while Marcão, Miguel Sierra and Iker Muñoz remained sidelined. Their status could still change before October 26.
Osasuna have made an important change
The main reason to be cautious when judging Osasuna from the early table is their coaching change.
After a poor start, Jagoba Arrasate returned to take charge and led his first training session on October 14. The club confirmed the move on the Osasuna website.
That creates extra uncertainty. The first eight league games describe one version of Osasuna, but the team may look different by the time they visit Sevilla: pressing structure, spacing between the lines and defensive behavior can all change quickly under a new coach.
Osasuna host Racing on October 18. That game should provide the first meaningful indication of how quickly Arrasate can influence the side.
The Betis defeat showed two different Osasunas
In their final match before the coaching change, Osasuna lost 5-2 to Betis. The scoreline was poor, but the game itself was more nuanced.
Betis went 3-0 up, then goals from Ante Budimir and Raúl reduced the deficit to one before the home side eventually pulled away again.
That sequence captures the main feature of the current Osasuna: they concede too much, but still have enough attacking quality to re-enter games that appear to be slipping away. Budimir remains one of the clearest individual threats to Sevilla.
Osasuna also have injury concerns
As of October 15, several Osasuna players were not training fully with the group. Jorge Herrando, Raúl Moro, Romain Del Castillo, Aimar Oroz and Asier Bonel were working through recovery programs, while Kike Barja trained individually because of muscular discomfort. Aimar Oroz had a confirmed left hamstring injury.
The situation may change before October 26, so firm conclusions about availability would be premature.
Recent meetings also warn against overrating Sevilla
The teams traded home wins last season. Sevilla won 1-0 at home in November 2025, while Osasuna took the return game 2-1 in Pamplona in April 2026.
That means home advantage alone does not make this matchup straightforward. It is the type of game where one goal can dramatically alter the entire script.
What could decide the match
The first key factor is Sevilla’s ability to control the game after scoring. The Levante draw showed that even a lead does not yet guarantee a calm finish.
The second is Osasuna’s reset under Arrasate. By October 26, the new coach will have had almost two weeks of work and one competitive game to test his ideas.
The third is Budimir and Osasuna’s penalty-box threat. If Sevilla continue allowing opponents to create chances too easily, their narrow advantage can disappear quickly.
The strongest argument against the prediction
The clearest counterargument in Osasuna’s favor is the combination of a new coach and meaningful attacking potential.
The team started the season poorly and conceded too many goals, but coaching changes can improve performance faster than the league table can reflect it. Sevilla also cannot afford repeated positional or individual defensive errors against this opponent.
For that reason, expecting an easy home win would be a mistake.
ORBK.NET prediction
Our baseline scenario is a Sevilla win, but the edge is minimal.
ORBK.NET estimate: approximately a 52% chance of a Sevilla victory.
The working range is 47-57%.
That reflects limited confidence: Sevilla are the single most likely winner, but a draw or an Osasuna victory together still account for a very large share of possible outcomes.
Sevilla’s advantages are home field, the better start to the season and somewhat greater overall stability. The concerns are their game-management problems, injury questions and, above all, uncertainty over how much Osasuna may improve after Arrasate’s return.
Final assessment
At this stage Sevilla hold a small advantage, but this is not a high-confidence forecast.
Two games on October 18 will be especially informative before the final assessment: Real Madrid vs Sevilla and Osasuna vs Racing.
Final ORBK.NET prediction: Sevilla to win — approximately 52%.
Confidence: limited.
Main risk: Osasuna’s possible rebound under a new coach combined with Sevilla’s defensive instability.
